Wheat Prices Surge: Biggest Weekly Gain in a Month Due to Supply Concerns

SINGAPORE – Chicago wheat prices rose on Friday and are on track for their biggest weekly increase in a month due to concerns about crop losses in the Black Sea region and other key exporting countries.

Corn prices firmed up, while soybeans edged slightly lower.


Key Points

  • The most-traded wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 0.4% to $7.01 a bushel as of 0036 GMT, making the weekly price increase 7.6%.
  • Corn added 0.3% to $4.65-1/4 a bushel, while soybeans fell 0.1% to $12.38-1/4 a bushel. For the week, corn has risen 2.7%, while soybeans have seen a slight increase.
  • Lower forecasts for Russia’s wheat production have spurred a rally, pushing wheat prices to a 10-month high this week. There’s also worry about bad weather affecting crops in Ukraine, Australia, France, and Germany.
  • The International Grains Council (IGC) has revised its forecast for global wheat production in the 2024/25 season, lowering the expected output by 3 million metric tons. The worldwide wheat production estimate now stands at 795 million tons.
  • This adjustment comes as the IGC downgraded the production outlook for key Black Sea countries, notably Russia and Ukraine, which are significant contributors to the global wheat supply.
  • Germany’s wheat crop is expected to shrink by 5.6% this year to 20.31 million metric tons, according to the latest estimate by the country’s association of farm cooperatives.
  • Corn futures were supported by concerns over South American production.
  • In Brazil’s southernmost state, where rain and flooding have disrupted work, farmers have now harvested 91% of their soy area, up from 85% last week, according to crop agency Emater.

Market Activity

  • Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT corn futures on Thursday but net sellers of soybean, soyoil, wheat, and soymeal futures, traders said.

Market News

  • U.S. stocks ended sharply lower on Thursday as initial enthusiasm over Nvidia’s quarterly results faded. Strong economic data raised concerns about a longer period of tight monetary policy.

Upcoming Data/Events

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  • G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meet in Stresa, Italy, to discuss global economic development.

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