Indian Stock Market Today: 8 Key Changes You Need to Know – Gift Nifty, US Treasury Yields & RBI Bulletin

The Indian stock market is expected to have a calm but cautious opening today, with both the Sensex and Nifty 50 likely to remain volatile due to weak signals from global markets.

Here’s a quick look at the major changes that could impact the market:

1. Asian Markets Struggle

Asian markets were down on Tuesday after a mixed day on Wall Street. Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped by 1.34%, South Korea’s Kospi fell by 1.21%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 0.2%.

2. Gift Nifty Indicating a Flat Start

Gift Nifty, which signals the market’s opening, was trading around 24,800, just 10 points above Nifty futures’ previous close. This suggests the Indian markets might open without much change.

3. US Markets Mixed

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones dropped by 344 points, while the S&P 500 saw a smaller dip of 10 points. The Nasdaq, however, ended on a positive note, rising 50 points, thanks to strong gains in Nvidia’s stock, which hit a record high.

4. Rising US Treasury Yields

The 10-year US Treasury yield hit a 12-week high of 4.17%, affecting the overall market sentiment. As bond yields rise, investors are concerned about future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

5. Federal Reserve’s Rate Cut Debate

Several Federal Reserve policymakers are in favor of further rate cuts, but they disagree on how fast or how much. Some prefer a slow approach, while others, like Mary Daly from San Francisco Fed, believe that as long as inflation is falling, the economy can handle more cuts.

6. RBI Bulletin on Rate Hikes

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) shared that the cumulative rate hikes of 2.5% since May 2022 have helped reduce inflation by 1.60%. These measures have also helped balance supply and demand, which is reducing inflationary pressure.

7. Oil Prices Ease After Recent Surge

Oil prices dipped after a near 2% rise on Monday. Brent crude futures fell to $74.03 a barrel, while US crude dropped to $70.27 per barrel.

8. Dollar Holds Strong

The US dollar stayed near a two-and-a-half-month high, strengthened by rising Treasury yields. The dollar index, which measures the currency’s value against other major currencies, stood at 103.96.

Expert Take

Siddhartha Khemka from Motilal Oswal Financial Services mentioned that markets are under pressure due to Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) selling and lackluster domestic earnings. Despite positive results from HDFC Bank, weak numbers from major players like Kotak Mahindra Bank and Tata Consumer Products have dragged the market lower.

What to expect today? Investors should brace for a subdued and possibly volatile trading day, with global cues and weak domestic earnings weighing on the Indian stock market.