Indian Stock Market Set to Open Higher Amid Global Gains: Key Weekend Shifts in Gift Nifty, US Consumer Sentiment, and Gold Rates

The Indian stock market, represented by the Sensex and Nifty 50 indices, is expected to open higher on Monday, following positive global market trends. While Asian markets showed mixed results, US stock futures saw gains after the S&P 500 recorded its best week of 2024.

Key Events This Week

Global central bank officials, including US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, will be speaking at the Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming. Powell’s speech on Friday could set the tone for future US interest rate cuts. According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, there’s a 74.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the US Fed in September, with a smaller 25.5% chance of a larger 50 basis point cut.

Market Performance Last Week

On Friday, the Indian stock market had a strong performance, with the Nifty 50 crossing the 24,500 mark and the Sensex moving past 80,500. The Sensex rose by 1,330.96 points, or 1.68%, to close at 80,436.84, while the Nifty 50 increased by 397.40 points, or 1.65%, closing at 24,541.15.

Expert Opinion

Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Retail Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, believes the market will continue to show earnings growth of around 15% over the next two years. The recent softening of US Producer Price Index (PPI) data has fueled hopes of US rate cuts. This week, all eyes will be on the US Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes and Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Overall, Khemka expects the market to consolidate within a broader range, taking cues from global factors.

What to Watch This Week

Investors should keep an eye on several factors that could influence the Indian stock market, including upcoming domestic and global economic data, US Federal Reserve meeting minutes, Jerome Powell’s speech, foreign fund inflows, crude oil prices, and any significant global geopolitical developments.

Global Market Cues

Asian Markets:
Asian markets had mixed results on Monday after a broad rally last week. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index outside Japan rose by 0.2%, following a 2.8% gain last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 remained flat, while South Korea’s Kospi and Kosdaq saw slight declines.

Gift Nifty:
Gift Nifty was trading at around 24,666, indicating a positive start for the Indian stock market.

Wall Street:
US stock markets ended higher on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq marking their seventh straight session of gains. The Dow Jones gained 96.7 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also saw modest increases.

Other Key Indicators

US Consumer Sentiment:
US consumer sentiment improved in August, driven by developments in the race for the White House. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose to 67.8 in August from 66.4 in July.

Housing Starts:
US single-family housing starts dropped by 14.1% in July, the lowest level since March 2023.

Japan Core Machinery Orders:
Japan’s core machinery orders rose by 2.1% in June, beating expectations.

Oil Prices:
Oil prices fell slightly on Monday due to concerns over weaker demand in China. Brent crude futures dropped to $79.55 per barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell to $76.52 per barrel.

Gold Prices:
Gold prices hit a new all-time high, with spot gold surpassing $2,500 an ounce. The rise was driven by expectations of a US Fed rate cut and increased tensions in the Middle East.