Indian Stock Market Set for Higher Opening on October 9 Ahead of RBI Policy Announcement: What to Expect for Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty

Indian Stock Market Today: What to Expect on October 9

The Indian stock market, represented by benchmark indices Nifty 50 and Sensex, is expected to open on a higher note on Wednesday, October 9. This comes after global markets showed gains and ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy announcement. Early trends from Gift Nifty indicate a flat-to-positive start for the Indian market, with Gift Nifty trading around 25,145, about 15 points higher than the previous close of Nifty futures.

The RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das-led Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is widely expected to keep the repo rate unchanged in its policy announcement today. However, analysts speculate that the RBI may shift its policy stance, possibly hinting at future changes in interest rates.

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Performance on October 8:

On Tuesday, after six consecutive days of losses, the domestic equity benchmark indices saw a strong recovery. The Sensex surged by 584.81 points (0.72%), closing at 81,634.81, while Nifty 50 ended 217.40 points (0.88%) higher at 25,013.15. This marked a positive turnaround, with Nifty forming a long bullish candle on the daily charts, indicating the possibility of an upward bounce.

Nifty 50 Outlook for October 9:

Nifty 50 is currently showing signs of a possible double-bottom pattern near the 24,700 level, which could indicate a bullish reversal. However, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, Nagaraj Shetti, noted that Tuesday’s bounce might be short-lived. He emphasized that a sustained upside would only be confirmed if Nifty breaks decisively above the 25,000 mark. If this happens, Nifty could potentially rise toward the next resistance zone of 25,400 to 25,500.

However, if the index fails to close above 25,000, the rally may lose momentum. Dr. Praveen Dwarakanath, Vice President at Hedged.in, added that while Nifty has seen a bounce from the 24,800 level, it needs to close above the previous day’s high to confirm a strong recovery. According to him, traders should only take a bullish view on Nifty once it crosses the 25,300 level. Until then, he advises selling into any upward movement.

Open Interest (OI) Data for Nifty 50:

Mandar Bhojane, Technical Analyst at Choice Broking, shared that the highest open interest on the call side is at the 25,200 and 25,500 strike prices, indicating significant resistance around these levels. On the put side, the highest open interest is at 24,800, suggesting strong support at that level. This data indicates that Nifty is expected to find support near the 24,800 mark, while facing resistance near 25,200 and 25,500.

Aditya Agarwal, Head of Derivatives and Technical Analysis at Sanctum Wealth, believes the short-covering rally in Nifty could continue, with the index potentially testing the 25,200 and 25,350 levels. On the downside, he noted that support lies around the 24,850 and 24,750 levels.

VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today, also predicted that Nifty could trade between 25,450 and 24,360 over the next few trading sessions. She advised investors to be cautious due to the overbought conditions indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 75. Investors should focus on stocks with strong return on equity (ROE), solid order books, and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios that are at or below the sector average. She cautioned against thematic investments for the time being.

Ambala expects Nifty to find support levels around 24,880 and 24,670, while resistance could be encountered at 25,230 and 25,350 during today’s session.

Bank Nifty Outlook for October 9:

Bank Nifty also saw a short-covering rally on Tuesday, climbing 542.10 points (1.07%) to close at 51,021.00. However, like Nifty, Bank Nifty needs to break a key resistance level at 51,850 to signal a clear reversal of the recent downward trend. Dr. Praveen Dwarakanath pointed out that despite Tuesday’s bounce, the index is still not out of the woods as it hasn’t closed above its previous high. A close above 51,850 would be a sign of further gains, but until then, the strategy should be to “sell on the rise.”

In terms of options data, increased call writing at the 51,000 level suggests that Bank Nifty may struggle to close above this level today. This call writing is a bearish signal indicating traders’ expectations of resistance at that price point.

As investors await the RBI’s policy decision, market experts will also be keeping a close eye on the global geopolitical situation, particularly the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, which could impact market sentiment in the short term.

In summary, while both Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty are showing signs of a potential recovery, analysts remain cautious. Key resistance levels must be broken for a sustained upward trend, and the market’s performance today will likely be influenced by the RBI’s policy announcement and global factors.