ICICI Bank Q1 Results Preview: Profit Expected to Rise Over 8% as Loan Growth Remains Steady; NIM in Focus

ICICI Bank is set to announce its April-June 2024 results (Q1FY25) on Saturday, July 27. Analysts predict steady growth for India’s second-largest bank, driven by loan growth and better asset quality.

Brokerages expect ICICI Bank’s net profit to increase by 8-10% for the June quarter. Net interest income (NII) is estimated to grow by 12%. Key metrics to watch are the net interest margin (NIM), which shows the bank’s profitability in lending, and deposit growth.

ICICI Bank shares have risen 20.6% year-to-date and 22% over the past year. On Friday, the stock closed at ₹1,207.70, slightly below its 52-week high of ₹1,257.65.

Brokerages’ Expectations:

Axis Securities

• Advances growth: 16% YoY, led by retail and SME segments.
• Deposit growth similar to credit growth.
• Possible slight margin compression QoQ.
• Stable credit costs and asset quality.
• Focus on NIM outlook and unsecured loan growth.

Kotak Institutional Equities

• Loan growth: ~15% YoY across all segments.
• Provisions growth to match loan growth.
• Key concerns: NIM progress and cost of funds.
• Deposit mobilization is a major area of focus.

Elara Capital

• Steady loan growth but softer deposit growth.
• Strong average CASA balance traction.
• Expected 4-5 bps NIM decline QoQ.
• Increased slippages, mainly in agriculture.

StoxBox (Manish Chowdhury)

• Decent Q1FY25 performance with high single-digit profit growth YoY.
• Steady loan growth, softer deposit growth.
• NIM compression due to higher fund costs.
• Strong loan growth and low market share to support upward growth trend.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services

• Strong balance sheet with ample provisions.
• Margin corrected 50 bps to 4.4% over the past year.
• Expected superior performance with healthy loan growth and strong asset quality.
• RoA/RoE estimated at 2.2%/17.6% for FY26.
• Standalone bank trades at 2.2x FY26E ABV.

Prabhudas Lilladher

• Loan growth: 3.5%.
• Softer NII growth QoQ due to 2 bps NIM decline.
• GNPAs to improve by 2 bps QoQ.
• Credit costs to increase by 12 bps QoQ.
• Net profit growth: 10% YoY.
• NII growth: ~8% YoY.

ICICI Bank is expected to show solid growth despite some challenges, with analysts focusing on loan and deposit growth, NIM, and asset quality.