Indian Stock Market Update: 10 Major Changes Over the Weekend – US Jobs Data, Gift Nifty, Israel-Iran Conflict Impact

The Indian stock market, including Sensex and Nifty 50, is set to open higher on Monday after global markets saw gains over the weekend and following last week’s sharp declines.

While Asian markets showed mixed trends, U.S. stocks ended on a high note, driven by positive jobs data, which has reshaped expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next move. Traders now expect a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in November, with a 95% chance, up from 65% last week, according to Reuters.

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Last Friday, the Indian markets closed nearly 1% lower, marking five straight days of losses. The Sensex dropped 808.65 points (0.98%) to close at 81,688.45, while Nifty 50 declined 235.50 points (0.93%) to end at 25,014.60.

This week, traders are keeping a close eye on key events like the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) upcoming policy meeting, quarterly results, and the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran. Here’s a breakdown of the key factors influencing the Indian market today:

1. Global Markets Impact

Asian markets traded mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up by 2.03% and South Korea’s Kospi down 0.28%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index futures point to a lower start.

2. Gift Nifty’s Positive Start

Gift Nifty was trading around 25,260, suggesting a positive opening for the Indian stock market. This is a 70-point premium compared to Nifty futures’ previous close.

3. Wall Street Gains

U.S. markets ended higher on Friday with the Dow Jones rising 341.16 points (0.81%), S&P 500 adding 51.13 points (0.90%), and Nasdaq up 219.37 points (1.22%). This rally was fueled by strong jobs data. Notable movements in stocks included Spirit Airlines, Frontier Group, and Delta Air Lines, with some significant gains and losses.

4. US Nonfarm Payrolls Surge

The U.S. reported strong job growth in September, adding 254,000 jobs, the highest since March. This was well above expectations, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%.

5. U.S. Unemployment Drops

The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%, indicating a healthy labor market, with 430,000 new jobs created in September. This outpaced the 150,000 people who entered the labor force, as per Reuters.

6. Israel-Iran Tensions Escalate

The conflict between Israel and Iran took a serious turn, with Israel increasing airstrikes on northern Gaza and southern Lebanon. A strike on a mosque reportedly killed at least 19 people, raising concerns about further geopolitical instability.

7. Oil Prices Decline Slightly

After a significant rise last week, oil prices dropped slightly on Friday. Brent crude fell 0.5% to $77.62 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 0.5% to $74.03 per barrel.

8. Currency Movements

The U.S. dollar continued its rally, following strong job data, hitting a seven-week high. The Japanese yen weakened, and the euro and British pound remained relatively stable.

9. Gold Prices Fall

Gold prices edged lower due to the stronger U.S. dollar and growing bets for a smaller U.S. rate cut. Spot gold fell by 0.1% to $2,650.79 per ounce.

10. FII Activity

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold ₹9,896.95 crore worth of Indian shares on Friday, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) purchased shares worth ₹8,905.08 crore, based on provisional data.

This week will see heightened activity as markets react to both global and domestic events, with the RBI policy meeting and Q2 earnings reports expected to play a major role in shaping market movements.