10 Crucial Factors Set to Shape Dalal Street This Week: GST Action, FII Moves, and More Market News

Nifty saw a 0.4% gain during a holiday week shortened by Bakri Eid. As markets reopen on Monday, several important domestic and global events are expected to influence them.

“The Indian stock markets showed positive trends, with the Sensex and Nifty indices posting minor gains, marking their third consecutive week of growth. The Nifty Bank index, in particular, had its largest weekly gain of 2024, surging by more than 3%. This impressive performance also signifies the Nifty Bank’s longest winning streak in 19 months, recording gains for the sixth straight week,” said Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst at Swastika Investmart.

According to Gour, the market is expected to trade sideways this week due to the lack of strong buying or selling triggers, although the overall sentiment remains bullish. He anticipates dips attracting opportunistic buying, which could support the market.

Here are the key factors likely to impact the market this week:

1. GST Council Meeting Outcome

The GST Council on Saturday decided to tweak tax rates on items like accommodation services for students and solar cookers. They also introduced taxpayer-friendly measures, including waiving interest and penalties for demand notices issued in the first three years of GST rollout. The council discussed various issues, including taxation on online gaming and the recommendation to lower taxes on fertilizers.

2. US Markets

Major indices on Wall Street ended weak on Friday for the second straight session, dragged down by technology stocks. The Dow 30 ended slightly up, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed lower. Indian markets will take cues from these performances and track movements in GIFT Nifty futures on Monday.

3. Rupee vs Dollar

The rupee appreciated by 4 paise to 83.57 against the US dollar on Friday, supported by recent foreign capital inflows and stable crude oil prices. However, it faced resistance due to a strengthening American currency and subdued sentiment in domestic equity markets. Analysts expect the rupee to trade in a range of 83.20 to 84 against the dollar.

4. Corporate Actions

Several companies have important corporate actions scheduled for the week:

• June 24: Ex-date and record date for Oberoi Realty
• June 25: Ex-date for AGM/dividend of Cera Sanitaryware, AGM for Dodla Dairy
• June 26: Record date for Cera’s dividend
• June 26: Ex-date and record date for rights issue of SEPC
• AGMs of JSW Holdings, Tata Elxsi, Alkyl Amines, Voltas, Welspun Living, and Indian Overseas Bank

5. Technical Factors

The market outlook will be guided by major domestic and global economic data. Analysts predict Nifty will continue consolidating within the range of 23,400 to 23,700. For Bank Nifty, a bullish continuation is expected, with key levels to watch at 52,200 for resistance and 50,500-49,900 for support.

6. FII/DII Action

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers on Friday, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were net buyers. The performance of these investors will significantly impact market movements.

7. IPO Action

The primary market remains active with nine new IPOs set to launch next week. This includes the IPOs of Allied Blenders and Vraj Iron and Steel in the mainboard segment and seven issues in the SME segment. Eleven listings are also expected, including Stanley Lifestyles, DEE Development Engineers, and Akme Fintrade.

8. Crude Oil

Crude oil prices remain crucial for markets due to their impact on inflation and global central bank policies. Oil prices held near a seven-week high on Friday, balancing signs of improving US demand against a stronger US dollar.

9. Bond Yields

Indian government bond yields ended marginally lower for the week, influenced by US treasuries and purchases by foreign investors. India’s benchmark 10-year yield ended at 6.9723%, slightly down from 6.9781% in the previous close.

10. Global Macros

Important global events this week include speeches by Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller and FOMC member Mary C. Daly, US home sales data, the Bank of England’s financial stability report, and economic data releases from the Eurozone and China.

These factors will collectively influence market sentiment and movements when trading resumes.